El Niño Could Change Your Yard This Year – What Gardeners In Every Region Of The US Should Prepare For
Discover how changing weather patterns could affect your garden and what you can do
Many are aware that El Niño is a Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures and can cause disruption, but what we may be less aware of is the effects it could have in the coming months.
According to scientists at The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño or "Super El Niño" in the Northern Hemisphere later this year. Predicting the exact timing and location of specific weather patterns is notoriously challenging. However, NOAA's research tracks how the warming phases of El Niño and and cooling phases of La Niña broadly influence weather regionally, across the US.
This can bring severe weather with serious consequences, meaning resilient planting ideas have never been more important. But it can also affect American gardens in less dramatic but otherwise important ways – and homeowners may wish to take note. We've asked meteorologists about the impact of El Niño and how American gardeners in different regions can best prepare their yards.
Why Gardeners Should Pay Attention to El Niño
Aside from the wider implications, these changing weather patterns can affect how your plants perform and the type of maintenance they require.
More seriously, particular preparations may help plants, shrubs, trees and edible crops survive drought conditions, flash flooding and tropical storms.
'An active El Niño can lead to a shift in the Pacific jet stream that could cause changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the US.,' explains Johnna Infanti, PhD., a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
'Although an El Niño can have impacts on temperature and precipitation year-round, impacts are usually stronger in winter months, when the Southern US and East Coast tend to be wetter and cooler than normal, and the Northern US tends to be warmer and drier than normal.'
Experts at AccuWeather add that El Niño can also amplify extreme rain in some areas and extreme drought in other areas.
'Many areas of the country, particularly the Plains States, are already experiencing drought, before El Niño has really got going,' says Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder, AccuWeather. 'There is real concern the deficit in average rainfall could worsen as the precipitation deficit grows, given the expected strength of El Niño.'
Johnna Infanti, PhD. is an accomplished meteorologist and climatologist with extensive experience in climate prediction, climate communication and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. She is based at NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center.
How El Niño May Affect Different Regions
Of course any weather forecast is a prediction based on data and nothing is confirmed. However, meteorologists are monitoring El Niño carefully and comparing its activity to previous decades to gauge its potential impact.
'Although an active El Niño can tilt the odds towards known impacts, it is not a guarantee,' says Johnna. 'Local seasonal conditions can still vary from the typical weather in years with an El Niño.
'Furthermore, this particular El Niño has just started and is still ramping up, adding to the uncertainty in our near-term forecasts for summer through fall.'
However, there are some expectations and it's good to be prepared. Discover the weather conditions that could occur in your region over the longer term and the steps you can take to mitigate the effects of El Niño in your yard.
Pacific Northwest
Johnna informs us that drought development is expected over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California during July, August and September, due mostly to a very dry average summer climate.
'Odds of above-normal temperatures are highest to the north, including Northern California, Oregon, and Washington, and slightly lower over Central and Southern California,' says Johnna.
'The Northwest may see a drier-than-average summer, with the area of probable below-normal precipitation expanding to cover most of Washington and Oregon, as well as parts of the northern Missouri River basin, by the end of fall, as El Niño impacts increase.
Meteorologist and gardener, Dr. William Miller, Assistant Research Scientist, University of Maryland Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) explains what issues these patterns may cause and what gardeners can do.
'There is already drought in parts of Oregon and Washington State, and this is likely to continue in the Pacific Northwest and California,' says Will.
'Those north of San Fransisco up to Seattle, where above average temperatures and lower precipitation are expected, may want to consider growing more drought-tolerant plants.
'Also, anyone who has been considering replacing a green lawn with native grasses, perennials or wildflowers, this is a good time to do so. If water restrictions are imposed, these plants require less irrigation and will cope better.'
This Yarrow ((Achillea millefolium 'Strawberry Seduction') from Nature Hill's is a hardy, native perennial that can withstand hot, dry, sunny sites, while these California Poppies from True Leaf Market are west coast natives, from the cool and temperate stretches of the Pacific Northwest down into Mexico.
Dr William Miller is an Assistant Research Scientist at Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland. In his current research William explores the use of new satellite data platforms for providing atmospheric temperature and water vapor information to weather forecasting models. In his spare time, he enjoys getting his hands dirty in the garden, and hiking local trails around Washington DC andthe Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains.
West Coast
As outlined above, across the west coast, above-normal temperatures are expected to persist from summer through fall.
'Southern California may see wetter-than-average conditions as a result of El Niño, although our current models show that the likelihood of this remains fairly low,' says Johnna.
'As with many parts of the country, for the West, El Niño impacts are typically minor in summer and fall, and ramp up more as winter approaches.'
Will reminds us that the Western US had a mild, dry winter last year. So if Southern California sees a wetter fall later this year, when the ground is parched, there is a concern for run-off and flash floods.
'Too much rain could be a concern this upcoming winter,' says Will. 'Gardeners may want to consider strong, deep rooted plants, which are more resistant to soil erosion and run-off from heavy rain.
'On the flip side rainfall will benefit ground water supplies and it would be worth gardener's collecting rainwater for future dry spells.'
This beautiful Blacksmith Lupine from Nature Hill's has deep tap roots that can prevent erosion. Other good plants for erosion control include grasses like this Firefox Sedge from Nature Hill's.
You could also collect rainwater in this rain barrel from Ace Hardware, which holds 50 gallons.
Southwest and Southern Rockies
As El Niño reaches the Southwest and southern Rockies, it's predicted that like southern California, this region may see more rainfall, which gardeners can prepare for in numerous ways.
'Although there is little impact on summer temperatures in the Southwest in summer, fall temperatures tend to be cooler than usual during an El Niño,' explains Dan Collins, Ph.D, meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
'The impacts of El Niño on precipitation in the Southwest begin to increase later in the summer leading to greater odds of above normal precipitation in summer and fall seasons.'
Dan explains that a greater chance of development of tropical storms over the warm tropical Pacific Ocean may contribute to precipitation in this region. 'This can ease drought but in a trade-off, may lead to increased flash flooding.'
'The climatology in Arizona and New Mexico is similar to that of Southern California,' says Will. 'So although, these regions should see increased rainfall in the fall and winter, which has the benefits of recharging reservoirs, the hazards of flash flooding could cause erosion.'
'Again, plants with deep, strong roots will show far more resilience. They can also access deeper water supplies when dry weather returns.'
However, the outlook is more uncertain as you move northward towards the central Rocky region; Utah, Nevada and Colorado.
'These regions are in severe levels of drought right now and could benefit from the south western precipitation, but most likely, there will be a worsening of drought conditions,' says Will.
'Gardeners here, and those further north, would benefit from switching to drought-tolerant or desert plants, or replacing lawns with native wildflowers and preparing for further drought conditions.'
Although native to Texas, this Red Yucca from Fast-Growing Trees is acclimated to Arizona and is drought-tolerant and heat-resistant.
A relative of Agave, this Desert Spoon plant from Fast-Growing Trees is highly drought-tolerant, once established and would provide architectural interest in the garden with its slender foliage and striking form.
Dan Collins is a meteorologist and research scientist at NOAA Climate Prediction Center. creating climate forecasts from statistical analysis and dynamical models.
Gulf Coast and South East
Meteorologists at NOAA predict that above-normal temperatures are likely to persist from summer through fall for much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
'Parts of Texas and Louisiana may see drier-than-average conditions during the early summer,' says Dan. 'However, in the fall the likelihood of above-normal precipitation increases for the Southeast, as the impact of El Niño on precipitation in the Southeast becomes quite strong in winter.'
NOAA predicts fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, but El Niño does not eliminate the possibility for a tropical storm or hurricane to strike the southeast.
'This can be seen with Storm Arthur, which arrived recently,' says Dan. 'Warmer ocean temperatures in some regions can still lead to the strengthening of some storm systems.'
Outside of emergency situations, storms can still take their toll in the garden. 'Strangely, gardeners may still have dry soil,' says Will. 'Along the Gulf Coast and Southeast the soil is generally sandy.
'Water can drain too quickly and soil can dry out as sandy soil doesn't retain moisture. Adding bulk, such as organic matter into the soil can help retain water and better protect plants and trees.'
This bark mulch from Ace Hardware can help soil to retain moisture, during a dry summer and prevent pooling after rainfall.
Midwest and Great Lakes
According to meteorologists El Niño has a stronger impact on temperature in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions in summer than most regions of the country.
'Once developed, an El Niño would increase the chances of cooler than average temperatures for this region with the strongest connection to cooler temperatures in the Central Mississippi Valley,' says Dan.
'Overall, impacts to summer precipitation in the Midwest are less certain. The Great Lakes may see less rainfall in early summer, but this impact decreases as the chances of greater than average precipitation increases in southern areas of the Midwest, including the Ohio Valley, later in fall.'
Will tells us that with the exception of Wisconsin and Minnesota, much of the Great Lakes region, including Michigan, Indianan, Ohio have no drought right now, unlike many other parts of the U.S.
'A cooler than average summer with drier conditions across the Great Lakes regions could lead to mild drought conditions later this summer and into the fall,' he says. 'Although, it's nothing too alarming, yet.'
Collecting rain water would still be a wise choice. This rain barrel from Ace Hardware holds 100 gallons and has a spigot to fit a hose.
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
The impact of El Niño on summer and fall temperatures and precipitation over the Northeast is difficult to untangle from other seasonal variations, according to Johnna.
'Sometimes, in summer, El Niño leads to more storms along the coast of the Northeast, but the connection is weak,' she says. 'There is only a small increase in the probability of above-normal precipitation along the coast of the Northeast in the summer season.
'Temperatures are most likely to be above-normal for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic from the summer through the fall, where there has been a multi-year trend towards warmer temperatures.'
Will adds that the coastal Northeast, including New York, New England can likely expect a hot, humid summer with some risk of thunderstorms. Elsewhere, in the Mid-Atlantic, flash flooding is possible due to current drought conditions.
'Thunderstorm rain can be patchy, so flash flooding is a big risk in this region, although there may still be localised pockets of drought,' he says. 'Plants need protecting from erosion during heavy downpour season in the Eastern US.
'If you have heavy clay soil, water has trouble draining through, so it can help to mulch with a light compost to increase drainage.'
When planting trees or shrubs, dig a deeper hole and fill part of it with wood chip for drainage. 'To prepare for wet conditions, dig deep and plant high,' says Will. 'Plants don't like wet roots. So allow the shrub or tree to sit a few inches above ground. It creates a buffer and over a few months the plants will settle in.'
This organic biochar blend from Burpee can help break down heavy soil and improve drainage. Again deep-rooted, erosion-control plants will stand a stronger chance of staying put.
Shrubs like this Chokeberry from Nature Hill's tolerate dry or soggy soils and can help to hold soil in place during a downpour.
'If you're planting a tree on a hillside or slope, reserve the soil and build a lip or berm around the downhill part,' says Will, who also suggests using rocks or stone to prevent topsoil from running off in a storm and to keep a sapling from uprooting.
'Rainfall can be feast or famine, so it's worth capturing it for irrigation for when it's drier too, if you can,' he says. 'Another big take-away is there is likely to be a lack of extreme cold and less concern about deep freeze this coming winter.'
When gardeners switch to plants, shrubs and trees that are more resilient in the landscape the effects can be significant.
Whether it's swapping green lawns for prairie gardens; plants that require extensive irrigation for xeriscapes and drought-tolerant species, or opting for erosion-control shrubs and sedges, these small measures can add up.
By helping your yard better absorb rainfall, rather than enable run-off, or cope better in a drought, cumulatively can have a big impact, not only on your garden, but in your neighborhood.
If you love inspiring garden ideas, outdoor advice, and the latest news, why not sign up for our newsletter and get the latest features delivered straight to your inbox?
